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India to see a stronger cotton production year in 2017-18, says USDA

"Cotton production has witnessed surge in all major countries, including the US and India, resulting in the highest production outside China in six years. As a result, stocks outside of China will rise to a near-record share of use, the United States department of agriculture (USDA) said in its first detailed forecast for the 2017-18 marketing year. USDA says, 2017-18 would be the second year of production growth (nearly 7 per cent), alongside the strongest consumption growth since 2012-13 (over 2 per cent)."

 

 

India to see a stronger cotton production year in 2017 18 says USDA

 

Cotton production has witnessed surge in all major countries, including the US and India, resulting in the highest production outside China in six years. As a result, stocks outside of China will rise to a near-record share of use, the United States department of agriculture (USDA) said in its first detailed forecast for the 2017-18 marketing year. USDA says, 2017-18 would be the second year of production growth (nearly 7 per cent), alongside the strongest consumption growth since 2012-13 (over 2 per cent). Global consumption is expected to remain above production, yielding the third consecutive year of declining global stocks, albeit with a much smaller reduction than in the previous 2 years, the forecast said.

China’s cotton trends

India to see a stronger cotton production year in 2017 18

 

Stocks in China are forecasted to fall substantially for the third consecutive year, with a decline of about 9 million bales, reflecting continued strong and steady State reserve sales. Despite their aggressive sales and a continuing recovery in consumption, stocks in China will remain high with the ending stocks-to-use ratio above 100 per cent for the 6th consecutive year, the report said. Since China’s policies are aimed at reducing the State reserve, its imports will increase only slightly. However, the situation outside of China will be quite different.

Lower US exports

US cotton will face strong competition in exports as large Southern hemisphere crops will be available before the 2017-18 US crop. The Franc Zone, Central Asia, and India will have both higher carry-in stocks and larger production. As a result, despite higher exportable US supplies and growing world import demand, US exports are forecast to be lower in 2017-18. Compared to 2016-17, larger crops are forecast in 2017-18 for the US, India, Pakistan, China, Turkey, and Australia, with only moderate growth in Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, Central Asia, and West Africa. Meanwhile, production declines are anticipated in much of the Middle East and some African countries, such as Chad and Tanzania.

Global consumption patterns

In terms of consumption, strong growth is forecasted in 2017-18, for Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, and India, compared to their consumption in 2016-17. More moderate consumption growth is expected in Turkey and Indonesia, as well as some Western Hemisphere countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and the US. Consumption declines are forecast in South Korea, Taiwan, and several consuming countries in the Middle East and Europe.

 
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