Though the 2016 US cotton crop may still be somewhat of a question mark but the November numbers provided by USDA clarify a few things. One, cotton crop got smaller in some areas as expected and second, the crop still got bigger overall. The North and South Carolina cotton crops dipped by 95,000 bales. The Georgia crop is now closer to being correct after being reduced to 150,000 bales and the crop could get a bit smaller in all 3 instances. But these reductions totaling almost ¼ million bales were more than offset by increases in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas.

US exports are projected at 12 million bales unchanged from the October estimate. This is a good level of exports considering that China is expected to limit imports for the second consecutive year. As of November 10, export sales, this marketing year, total approximately 7.0 million 480-lb equivalent bales—58 per cent of the USDA estimate. This compares to 47 per cent at this time last year. Shipments total 2.55 million or 21 percent of the estimate. To date, the pace of shipments projects to only 9.2 million bales for the marketing year—but shipments were 17 percent at this time last year.

China is expected to import 4.5 million bales from all sources, this crop year compared to 4.41 million last year. As of 11/10, US export shipments to China totaled approximately 264,400 bales. Sales totaled approximately 910,000 bales or 20 percent of China’s expected total imports.
This month’s USDA numbers lowered world cotton use, or demand, just slightly to 111.99 million bales. In the big picture, this number itself is insignificant. But psychologically, this nervous market will pay close attention to this number. This is only .65 percent above last year and less than 2 percent growth since 2013.