Southeast Asia’s e-commerce market is set to exceed $370 billion by 2030, more than doubling its current size, driven by major platforms such as Alibaba’s Lazada, PDD Holdings' Temu, Byte Dance’s TikTok Shop, and Sea Group’s Shopee, according to a report from Google, Temasek Holdings, and Bain & Co.
Covering six core nations, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, the report projects a 15 per cent growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) this year, reaching $263 billion, while revenue could increase by 14 per cent to $89 billion.
Live-stream shopping, pioneered by TikTok’s Douyin, now comprises 20 per cent of e-commerce GMV, up from 5 per cent two years ago, fueling regional expansion. TikTok Shop surged to the second-largest platform with $16.3 billion in GMV last year. The report notes that sectors including e-commerce and food delivery are shifting from growth-focused strategies to profitability, achieved through optimized seller fees and targeted campaigns.
However, regulatory challenges loom as Indonesian and Vietnamese authorities scrutinize the influx of low-cost Chinese imports. Indonesia recently suspended TikTok Shop, and Temu faces licensing issues in Vietnam, highlighting ongoing tensions as local industries seek protection from international competition.
