Online retail in India is projected to surpass organized retail by 2030, according to a Deloitte report. The growth of modern retail, including malls and supermarkets, may more than double to $230 billion by 2030, while online retail is expected to reach $325 billion, growing 2.5 times compared to its 2022 value of $70 billion.
The overall physical retail market, comprising organized retail and traditional mom-and-pop stores, is set to nearly double to $1.6 trillion over the same period. Traditional retail is predicted to dominate, reaching $1.3 billion, up from $750 billion in 2022.
The report highlights the influence of emerging channels such as social commerce, quick commerce, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms, reshaping the shopping habits of millennials and Gen Z.
Investments in specialized vertical e-commerce are also expected to increase. Within e-commerce, quick commerce is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching $40 billion by 2030, while social commerce is projected to reach $55 billion. The expansion of the retail sector will be driven by rising incomes and demographic changes, with 65% of India's population falling into the key consuming cohort of 15-59 years until 2030.
This growth is expected to contribute to the expansion of the Indian middle class by adding 110 million households. India is currently among the top five retail markets globally and is expected to become the third-largest by 2030, trailing behind China and the United States. The food and grocery retail segment, which currently holds a 65% share of the total retail market, is projected to double by 2030. Categories like apparel and footwear, as well as gems and jewelry, are also expected to experience rapid growth.
The report emphasizes the significance of tier-2 and tier-3 cities, which are driving the next phase of growth in India's retail sector. Retailers are expanding their presence beyond tier-1 cities to meet the increasing demand. Additionally, the rapid growth of e-commerce in smaller cities is reshaping the retail landscape, with over 60% of orders coming from these regions in 2022.
