Vietnam's exports declined by 10% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2023, but are expected to rebound in the fourth quarter as US inventories normalize and multinational companies relocate manufacturing to Vietnam.
The decline in exports was due to several factors, including high inventory levels in key export destinations, the conflict in Ukraine, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are signs that these factors are starting to ease, which could lead to a rebound in exports in the coming months.
The US is in the process of normalizing its inventories, which will reduce the need for imports from Vietnam. Additionally, multinational companies are increasingly relocating manufacturing to Vietnam due to its strategic location and favorable business environment.
These factors are expected to lead to a rebound in Vietnam's exports in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, there are still some risks that could hinder this recovery, such as a global economic downturn or rising protectionism.
Overall, the outlook for Vietnam's exports is positive. The country is well-positioned to benefit from the relocation of manufacturing from China and the normalization of US inventories. However, there are some risks that could dampen the recovery, so it is important to monitor the situation closely.
