Cotton production recovery continues in 2017/18 with a projected 11 per cent growth due to increased area to touch 25.4 million tons. Following the sharp drop in production in 2015/16, the 2016/17 production recovered 7 per cent to 23 million tons. Production in the USA for the current season is expected to increase 25 per cent to 4.7 million tons, a 930,000 and increase. India remains the world’s largest producer with 2017/18 production expected to be 6.2 million tons with 8.7 per cent growth. The second largest producer, China’s, production is projected at 5.2 million tons with a 7.1 per cent increase. Pakistan’s production projections for 2017/18 is 11.5 per cent increase to 1.9 million tons. Production increase in Turkey is estimated to grow 18 per cent to 829,000 tons. Other major cotton producing countries are expected to have positive growth attributed to increased area and yields.
From the season low of 77 cents per pound at the start of season, prices are at a season high at the end of this calendar year up to 88 cents per pound. The current season average of 80 cents per pound is lower than the 2016/17 average of 83 cents per pound. With a lower international price from the previous season and the rising price of competing fibres, global consumption is expected to grow. International cotton prices have continued to move upward over the last few months as the season has been underway.
After stagnating in 2016/17, global cotton demand is expected to increase 3 per cent in 2017/18 to 25.2 million tons. Chinese mill use is expected to remain stable at 8.1 million tons, while India and Pakistan are expected to increase 3 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Consumption in Vietnam is expected to grow 12 per cent to 1.3 million tons. Moderate growth of 2-3 per cent is expected for other major consuming countries of Bangladesh, Turkey and the United States.
