El Nino could have a major impact on how much cotton world’s farmers produce in the coming year. The United States could see plantings increase from 8.6 million acres to a little over 9.1 million acres in 2016.

A mild El Nino would reduce world cotton area by 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in 2016. World production would rise 1.5 per cent and yields will rebound. World consumption would rise and world ending stocks would decline 7 to 8 per cent. World ending stocks would fall below 100 million bales to somewhere around 97 million bales. This would be the first time since 2012 that ending stocks would be below 100 million bales.

A very strong El Nino would bring world area down 1.5 to 2.5 per cent. World production could fall to 96 to 98 million bales as yields could be impacted. World consumption could be up a little bit, and if world consumption goes up and production goes down, world stocks could drop below 90 million bales.

The current El Nino pattern, which is the term used to describe a warming of the water in the Western Pacific, is the strongest in recorded history for the October, November and December periods. Its size is put at six million square miles.