With production continuing to outpace demand, the global cotton industry is set to encounter significant challenges in 2025. This year, growth will align with last year’s pace, project economists. Oil prices continue to trend lower, and cotton futures indicate price stability for the year ahead, as per the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
Brazil emerged as the world’s top cotton exporter in 2023-24, with shipments reaching 2.77 million tons to surpass the United States, which exported 2.37 million tons. China played a critical role in Brazil’s record exports, importing 924.7 thousand tons of cotton.
In 2024-25, cotton prices in Brazil are expected to decline due to high ending stocks, limited global demand, and slow global economic growth. However, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar could improve export competitiveness, potentially helping to stabilize prices.
As per Conab projections, Brazil’s area under cotton cultivation is expected to rise by 3 per cent to 2 million hectare in 2024/25. The country’s cotton productivity is expected to decrease by 3.1 per cent to 1,845 kg per hectare. Its total cotton production for the 2024/25 season is forecasted to decline by 0.2 per cent to 3.695 million tons.
On the global front, cotton supply in 2024-25 is forecasted to rise by 3.9 per cent, as per USDA data. World cotton consumption is expected to rise by 1.3 per cent during the same period, totaling 25.211 million tons.
