For the past three years, China was importing world's surplus cotton while its own production entered the reserves. Exporters were able to unload their surplus in China as the world's largest country imported nearly 56 million bales. China, in effect, was absorbing extra supplies from the world market, thus supporting global prices.

For the 2014 marketing year, that dynamic seems to be changing. China now plans to stop building cotton reserves. China's stocks are projected to remain stable and increase in world stocks will occur in other countries. China’s import quotas are expected to be more or less the same, but quantities above the required tariff-rate quota are expected to be less than in recent years. The changes in the cotton policy may alleviate some of the pressure on China's textile mills and provide more competitively priced fiber. As a result, mill use in China may see a modest growth to 36.4 million bales, leaving a 6.3 million bale differential with production.

China's cotton production is estimated to fall to 30.1 million bales, down from 33 million bales in 2013. Smaller imports by China and increased stocks outside of China imply that the US faces very competitive markets for its cotton. The US annually exports more than 70 per cent of its cotton production.