This fiscal (2016-17) production of cotton in the country is expected to hit a seven-year low because of a reduction in area under cultivation and pest attacks in Gujarat, even as domestic prices have started firming up after a poor season. Cotton imports in 2015-16 may have been the highest in a decade, say experts. Imports may see a new high this fiscal as the overall area where cotton has been sown has declined 8.7 per cent.

According to the Agriculture Ministry, area under cotton as on August 5 was 96.48 lakh hectare as compared to 105.68 lakh hectare a year ago. India's cotton production in 2015-16 declined to 338 lakh bales (one bale of 170 kg each), down 12.4 per cent from 386 lakh bales in the previous year to hit a six-year low, according to last month's update of Cotton Advisory Board (CAB).

NK Sharma, MD, Gujarat State Co-operative Cotton Federation feared that cotton production would further fall to 310-315 lakh bales in 2016-17. Scientists and industry insiders said cotton production is expected to fall in key states such as Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana.

Higher production in Maharashtra, where weather conditions are favourable as of today, is not expected to fully compensate for the fall in Gujarat and Punjab. Pink bollworm in Gujarat and white fly in north India had led to severe crop damage last year. This year, scientists of Central Institute of Cotton Research (CICR) say that white fly infestation is restricted to pockets such as Fazilka and Abohar in the North. But, the late sown cotton in Gujarat which is 30 per cent of the total cotton sown is likely to get affected by pink bollworm on a large scale.